0xdae578dc2fae96e9b03171a179106378bfe66fc8
0xdae578dc2fae96e9b03171a179106378bfe66fc8
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.68
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$3.16
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?
40 shares @ 27.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$1.68
$-9.23
- NO
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 26?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 26?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?
900 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-9.68
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
714 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6?
680 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-6.86
- UP
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
594 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.74
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
557 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.56
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 3?$5.00Jul 7, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?$9.19Jul 7, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Constellation Brands say "Shipment" during earnings call?$10.00Jul 1, 14:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nike say "Pink" during earnings call?$10.00Jul 1, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nike say "Pink" during earnings call?$7.18Jun 29, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?$5.33Jun 29, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 3?$4.76Jun 29, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Constellation Brands say "Shipment" during earnings call?$5.10Jun 29, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$11.14Jun 29, 06:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$5.17Jun 29, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$4.59Jun 29, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$4.59Jun 28, 11:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026$11.94Jun 28, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026$9.26Jun 28, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$13.44Jun 28, 02:12 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$4.91Jun 27, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?$4.40Jun 27, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?$4.82Jun 27, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?$9.09Jun 27, 17:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on June 27?$20.64Jun 27, 16:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $7.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 08:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 13:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.