Frugal-Forelimb
0xdb860dac2f7d64b98b1ad344c291d31ff18e5ccd
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$8.07
Total PnL
$-77.09
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
6 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.00
$0.00
- YES
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
9 shares @ 68.5¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.06
$-3.94
- YES
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on October 31?
1200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will PVV win 30–32 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on October 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in November 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$6.00Jul 10, 16:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?$6.60Jul 1, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-29?$3.05Jun 29, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-29?$7.06Jun 29, 20:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Austria win on 2026-06-22?$4.12Jun 22, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Austria win on 2026-06-22?$3.72Jun 22, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$4.77Jun 19, 13:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$4.88Jun 17, 21:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$7.54Jun 17, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$4.46Jun 13, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win on 2026-06-13?$1.54Jun 13, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$4.80Jun 4, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$7.42Jun 4, 17:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?$6.17Jun 4, 17:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 15?$6.44Jun 4, 17:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$10.29Jun 4, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$9.87May 28, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?$6.08May 21, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 15?$6.26May 13, 17:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?$8.54May 13, 17:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $4.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 15, 21:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 16:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.