Well-Off-Crayon
0xdb976ec8f75771f7af08d13546fe3d000867eee8
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
130
Open notional
$4.5K
Total PnL
$-10.0K
Realised
$11.5K
Win rate
17%
120 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 130- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 62.3¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.2K
$366.16
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
2000 shares @ 51.8¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.2K
$193.31
- YES
Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
424 shares @ 44.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$423.88
$236.39
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
1000 shares @ 20.5¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$255.00
$49.50
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
223 shares @ 57.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$175.06
$47.95
- YES
Will Mary Peltola win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?
66 shares @ 88.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$65.47
$7.22
- YES
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 24.2¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.00
$4.50
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
600 shares @ 19.1¢·now 7.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.89
$-68.42
- YES
Will Mark Lynch be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
600 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.30
$-8.70
- YES
Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?
305 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.15
$-53.89
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.27Aug 20, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Aug 20, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.10Aug 20, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$242.00Aug 19, 22:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$39.00Aug 19, 13:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?$900.00Aug 19, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?$71.26Aug 19, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dan S. Sullivan win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?$0.66Aug 19, 07:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$201.08Aug 19, 07:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$39.00Aug 19, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$914.06Aug 19, 07:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?$1.1KAug 19, 05:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mike Beltran be the FL-14 Republican nominee?$420.40Aug 19, 05:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?$131.28Aug 19, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?$1.9KAug 19, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cory Mills be the FL-07 Republican nominee?$125.00Aug 19, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$354.45Aug 19, 01:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?$100.00Aug 19, 01:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?$70.21Aug 19, 00:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?$68.62Aug 19, 00:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 120 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
120 closed markets, 17% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $73.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 23:45 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 120 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.