Loud-Dollop
0xdbe004e579e933637b4a7157a6bb14948d9e32cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$4.4K
Total PnL
$-262.94
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?
2024 shares @ 69.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$1.5K
$71.34
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
2000 shares @ 42.6¢·now 40.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$799.00
$-53.00
- YES
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
9803 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$539.18
$-49.02
- YES
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
500 shares @ 72.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$357.50
$-2.50
- YES
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
7680 shares @ 4.6¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$341.76
$-14.94
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
5000 shares @ 7.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$325.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Francesca Hong win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
300 shares @ 59.3¢·now 65.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$196.38
$18.49
- YES
Will Aly Richards win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
238 shares @ 70.3¢·now 66.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$157.08
$-10.14
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
1993 shares @ 7.5¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$149.48
$-0.03
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?
215 shares @ 13.9¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.95
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$0.00Aug 10, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$26.73Aug 10, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$26.70Aug 10, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$26.68Aug 10, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$26.59Aug 10, 13:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$0.00Aug 10, 13:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$0.00Aug 10, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$26.70Aug 10, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$26.68Aug 10, 13:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$113.74Aug 10, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$105.74Aug 10, 13:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$0.00Aug 10, 13:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$0.00Aug 10, 13:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$0.00Aug 10, 13:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$0.00Aug 10, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$578.05Aug 10, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$513.10Aug 10, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$104.33Aug 10, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$2.06Aug 10, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$38.83Aug 10, 13:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $129.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 12:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 13:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.