Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?
Probability
61¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$52.23
Liquidity
$22.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2576h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $22.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2576.3h
- 15:41SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2576h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:41PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 61¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 61¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 61¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 61¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 61¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 63¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 64¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 62¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 62¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 62¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 63¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 64¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 61¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 67¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 67¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 69¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 66¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).