Aged-Drum
0xdc700b60c6ed2f9eb28a216314a167777ee3cc56
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$18.8K
Total PnL
$-3.9K
Realised
$367.64
Win rate
33%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
2843 shares @ 76.1¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.2K
$38.69
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
2419 shares @ 80.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.1K
$188.11
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
4616 shares @ 62.4¢·now 45.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.1K
$-778.00
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
2156 shares @ 71.4¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$196.29
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
1668 shares @ 88.1¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$65.22
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
2441 shares @ 40.2¢·now 41.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$1.0K
$31.70
- NO
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
1567 shares @ 70.6¢·now 64.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.0K
$-103.88
- NO
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
920 shares @ 86.8¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$841.80
$42.97
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
962 shares @ 75.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$755.27
$33.78
- NO
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
1010 shares @ 66.1¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$752.73
$84.81
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$26.46Aug 2, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$23.03Aug 2, 07:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$264.88Aug 2, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$141.93Jul 31, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$19.35Jul 31, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$94.43Jul 31, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$51.47Jul 31, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$150.98Jul 31, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$15.84Jul 31, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$2.65Jul 31, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$2.65Jul 31, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$2.60Jul 30, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$2.65Jul 30, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$12.19Jul 30, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?$27.17Jul 30, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?$45.50Jul 29, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?$18.60Jul 28, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?$48.36Jul 28, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$151.98Jul 27, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$98.89Jul 27, 16:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $79.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 20:57 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 18:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.