0xdc765e651a5ef31f5926daffcad93f62e08e5f55
0xdc765e651a5ef31f5926daffcad93f62e08e5f55
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$239.26
Total PnL
$-173.37
Realised
$-9.36
Win rate
70%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
20 shares @ 75.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.60
$0.60
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
25 shares @ 59.9¢·now 59.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$14.77
$-0.21
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
35 shares @ 42.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$13.48
$-1.23
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
26 shares @ 56.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$13.13
$-1.43
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
45 shares @ 33.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$13.05
$-1.80
- NO
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
47 shares @ 31.5¢·now 25.4¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$11.96
$-2.84
- YES
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.51
$-0.49
- YES
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?
13 shares @ 78.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.10
$-0.90
- NO
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?
13 shares @ 60.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.78
$0.97
- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
22 shares @ 34.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$8.25
$0.77
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$11.73Jul 23, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$4.55Jul 23, 12:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$9.28Jul 23, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$14.88Jul 23, 10:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$7.70Jul 23, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$15.22Jul 23, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$15.35Jul 23, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate hike in 2026?$4.32Jul 23, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$7.48Jul 23, 06:14 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$5.51Jul 22, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$10.92Jul 22, 21:16 UTC
- TRADESELLAndrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?$7.93Jul 22, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$15.13Jul 22, 20:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?$3.48Jul 22, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$5.22Jul 22, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?$15.24Jul 22, 15:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$5.89Jul 22, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$3.60Jul 22, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$17.51Jul 22, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?$7.24Jul 22, 13:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $8.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 03:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 12:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.