Watchful-Fund
0xdc83474bc4cdf4d037f8be1eca21cfa290aabcd2
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$22.3K
Total PnL
$-733.77
Realised
$438.18
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
6793 shares @ 90.8¢·now 93.9¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$6.4K
$210.82
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
4924 shares @ 86.8¢·now 84.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.2K
$-120.81
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
2000 shares @ 82.5¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$1.5K
$-170.79
- NO
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
1802 shares @ 84.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.4K
$-72.02
- NO
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?
1488 shares @ 93.4¢·now 96.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.4K
$39.86
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
3100 shares @ 35.5¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.3K
$154.50
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
3057 shares @ 62.1¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.1K
$-814.14
- NO
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
2096 shares @ 34.5¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$890.97
$168.15
- YES
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?
2000 shares @ 55.5¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$880.00
$-230.00
- NO
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?
882 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$854.22
$16.32
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$97.90Jun 13, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$784.99Jun 13, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$910.00Jun 13, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$344.00Jun 13, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$576.00Jun 13, 14:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$21.58Jun 13, 06:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15?$0.47Jun 13, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?$530.00Jun 13, 00:03 UTC
- REWARD$3.02Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$628.01Jun 12, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?$248.00Jun 12, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$1.2KJun 12, 19:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$5.00Jun 12, 19:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$15.00Jun 12, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$388.00Jun 12, 19:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 12, 18:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15?$16.35Jun 12, 17:54 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$0.00Jun 12, 14:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15?$6.84Jun 12, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude go down 0-2 times in June?$0.00Jun 12, 12:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $279.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 09:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 16:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.