Definitive-Resume
0xdceecdb83fcbcc37d381f90ad0c7516824e3bda5
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$2.1K
Win rate
79%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1758 shares @ 56.9¢·now 54.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$958.09
$-41.91
- NO
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.9% and 1.1%?
453 shares @ 72.4¢·now 88.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$401.82
$74.28
- YES
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
16270 shares @ 2.2¢·now 1.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$317.26
$-43.44
- YES
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
356 shares @ 83.2¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$314.88
$18.73
- YES
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?
1963 shares @ 25.1¢·now 11.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$224.72
$-269.01
- NO
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?
214 shares @ 87.3¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$189.87
$2.75
- NO
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?
263 shares @ 57.4¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$148.33
$-2.51
- YES
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
11402 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.7¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$79.81
$-287.37
- YES
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
12980 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$71.39
$-259.61
- YES
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?
90 shares @ 72.1¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.79
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$14.7KJul 29, 11:28 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.54Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$24.56Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.2KJul 28, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.1KJul 28, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$809.31Jul 28, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$6.67Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15.79Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$418.96Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$817.06Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$208.48Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$890.53Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$839.96Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$201.04Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15.83Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15.64Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15.81Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$151.42Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$40.35Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.92Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.4K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 11:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.