Vigorous-Heartthrob-Return
0xdd424df03f0558e2be66760f8b1179733ec9c497
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$84.13
Total PnL
$-196.33
Realised
$18.05
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?
24 shares @ 64.5¢·now 91.8¢·exp Oct 26, 2026$21.68
$6.46
- YES
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?
57 shares @ 35.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.28
$0.29
- NO
Betmoar FDV above $50M one day after launch?
28 shares @ 36.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$18.33
$8.33
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$12.54
$2.55
- YES
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.26
$2.00
- NO
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by July 31?
22 shares @ 46.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.13
$-5.87
- YES
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
120 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.34
$1.26
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?
17 shares @ 58.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.57
$-9.42
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
63 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?
59 shares @ 33.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by July 31?$10.00Jul 25, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$6.88Jul 25, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by July 31?$3.05Jul 25, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by July 31?$6.95Jul 25, 03:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?$14.65Jul 24, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$9.99Jul 24, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 24, 2026?$9.99Jul 24, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?$9.99Jul 24, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?$10.00Jul 24, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$10.00Jul 24, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$10.00Jul 24, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?$10.06Jul 24, 15:31 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?$16.63Jul 24, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$13.33Jul 24, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?$9.99Jul 24, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?$10.00Jul 24, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?$2.26Jul 24, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$10.00Jul 24, 05:25 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?$14.25Jul 24, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?$10.00Jul 24, 00:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $14.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 17:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 08:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.