U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Probability
27¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$12.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $12.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.4h
- 15:38SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 28¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 27¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 27¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 27¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 27¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 27¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 27¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).