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OtherExpires Dec 31, 2026

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

Probability

27¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$12.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+10.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:38
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $12.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5984.4h

    LOW
  • 15:38Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).