Awkward-Stepaunt
0xdd9c961288a032098076267bd665d407dac231a0
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$88.4K
Total PnL
$37.1K
Realised
$-51.81
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
60422 shares @ 8.0¢·now 86.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.4K
$47.6K
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
17711 shares @ 86.3¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$13.4K
$-1.9K
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
35419 shares @ 13.1¢·now 24.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.6K
$4.0K
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
46877 shares @ 13.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.0K
$-2.1K
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
2084 shares @ 76.5¢·now 73.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.5K
$-55.37
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
4167 shares @ 9.2¢·now 25.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.0K
$656.49
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
1042 shares @ 35.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$653.21
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
1042 shares @ 64.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$334.94
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
1042 shares @ 19.0¢·now 94.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$986.06
$788.12
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
4167 shares @ 23.3¢·now 23.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$983.46
$12.80
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$50.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$7.92Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.0KJul 22, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.6KJul 22, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$309.69Jul 22, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$900.18Jul 22, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$310.41Jul 22, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$900.16Jul 22, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$621.57Jul 22, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.8KJul 22, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$621.58Jul 22, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.8KJul 22, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$911.96Jul 22, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.7KJul 22, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$578.44Jul 22, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.8KJul 22, 09:52 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.90Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$696.57Jul 21, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.7KJul 21, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$581.66Jul 21, 14:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.5K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 19:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.