True-Grandparent
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$762.8K
Total PnL
$-2.5M
Realised
$184.7K
Win rate
73%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
789589 shares @ 10.2¢·now 23.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$182.0K
$101.1K
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
629307 shares @ 18.1¢·now 24.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$152.9K
$39.1K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
107094 shares @ 41.3¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$95.8K
$51.6K
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
109802 shares @ 61.1¢·now 65.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$71.9K
$4.8K
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
35904 shares @ 50.3¢·now 92.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$33.3K
$15.3K
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
65278 shares @ 37.4¢·now 43.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$28.1K
$3.7K
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
356257 shares @ 21.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$26.7K
$-48.2K
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
27843 shares @ 89.7¢·now 93.6¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$26.1K
$1.1K
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
50000 shares @ 46.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$22.2K
$-750.00
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
50000 shares @ 46.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$21.7K
$-1.2K
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$595.25Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$6.40Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$8.02Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$12.68Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$149.55Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$343.47Jul 23, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$7.38Jul 23, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.30Jul 23, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$6.5KJul 23, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$7.19Jul 23, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$4.45Jul 23, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.7KJul 23, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.44Jul 23, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$5.30Jul 23, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.48Jul 23, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.35Jul 23, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$43.76Jul 23, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.35Jul 23, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$204.82Jul 23, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15.12Jul 23, 18:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$135.2K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
May 21, 01:00 UTC → Jun 3, 20:14 UTC
- BUYSpurs vs. Thunder$5.2K@69¢May 21, 02:34 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 5 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
limited
5 ledger trades
Top market concentration
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
$98.9K · 73% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.5K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 12:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.