Smoggy-Formal
0xde97f734c7d1b0435aac834b8469b13b15893b53
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$461.76
Total PnL
$-13.6K
Realised
$2.2K
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2907 shares @ 29.2¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$421.46
$-426.39
- YES
Trump out as President by June 30?
6200 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$40.30
$-3.60
- YES
Trump out as President by March 31?
125261 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- YES
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated?
81519 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2024$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Trump out as President by April 30?
73929 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-980.96
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
30156 shares @ 31.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-9.4K
- YES
Trump out as President by May 31?
13525 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-182.49
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
8652 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-845.53
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
6639 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-679.99
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
4500 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-377.32
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by June 30?$44.69Jun 11, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$45.00Jun 11, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$45.55Jun 5, 22:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$45.55Jun 1, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$30.27Jun 1, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$69.00May 7, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$107.32May 5, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$49.23May 4, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$129.29May 4, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$129.30May 4, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$49.98May 3, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$50.00May 3, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$200.00May 2, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by May 31?$81.00May 1, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by May 31?$87.50Apr 30, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by May 31?$10.00Apr 30, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by May 31?$4.00Apr 30, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$200.00Apr 25, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$200.00Apr 25, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$400.04Apr 25, 05:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $98.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 02:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 11, 15:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.