0xdea5208741d1c9fa52c2ec488d36a8cc5b2d46ae
0xdea5208741d1c9fa52c2ec488d36a8cc5b2d46ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$83.70
Total PnL
$-1.09
Realised
$-0.08
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 gross profit margin 70%+?
20 shares @ 99.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$16.37
$-3.52
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
11 shares @ 92.1¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.34
$0.39
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?
11 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.15
$0.17
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
11 shares @ 87.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$10.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
12 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.92
$-0.06
- YES
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
12 shares @ 85.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$9.77
$-0.18
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
33 shares @ 14.3¢·now 23.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.53
$2.86
- NO
Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
5 shares @ 78.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$4.92
$1.02
- NO
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
18 shares @ 27.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.59
$-2.24
- YES
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 27?
5 shares @ 32.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$2.10
$0.54
Recent activity
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$5.87Jun 20, 02:06 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$14.64Jun 19, 23:25 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$5.48Jun 19, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.52Jun 19, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 gross profit margin 70%+?$20.00Jun 19, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 27?$1.62Jun 19, 20:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 27?$1.56Jun 19, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 27?$0.45Jun 19, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$2.86Jun 19, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$10.00Jun 19, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jun 19, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.59Jun 19, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$2.35Jun 19, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.89Jun 19, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$4.99Jun 19, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$10.00Jun 19, 13:23 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$3.80Jun 19, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$1.34Jun 19, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$1.59Jun 19, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$0.28Jun 19, 07:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 13:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 02:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.