Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/starmer-out-by-july-31-2026-648 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/starmer-out-by-july-31-2026-648/markdown.

PoliticsExpires Jul 31, 2026

Creator

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Probability

86¢

+3.0pp

24h

+24.0pp

24h Vol

$174.3K

Liquidity

$48.3K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Momentum / follow-through

95% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Paper governor not run here

This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.

Signals

Momentum / follow-throughclear
95% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

Paper governor not run heresource
This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.

Costs / sizing

Research score: Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
Capacity: Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
Liquidity: Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.

Explanation packet2026-06-16.1

DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority

What can be learned

Source-to-runtime coverage118/148 runtime-backed0 unmapped

not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernelexecution_markout_kernelpaper_governor_policy+2

live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+44.0pp 7d

86¢

Jun 12, 2026, 21:00 UTCJun 19, 2026, 20:52 UTC

updated 20:52:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-19T20-52Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

01
Price move
Up 24pp over 24h
Now 86¢; +3.0pp in the last hour.
02
Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 3.6× turnover
$174.3k traded against $48.3k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
03
Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 24.0pp in 24h with 3.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

Set an alert if probability drops back below 81¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring

Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Starmer out by July 31, 2026? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Starmer out by July 31, 2026? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Jul 31, 12:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 999.1h
LOW
20:52Signal
Momentum up
Probability moved up 24.0pp in 24h with 3.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
HIGH

Price movement

+24.0pp over the last 24h, now 86¢.

Biggest hourly move: +35.0pp at 20:00 (to 82¢).

Show top 8 of 45 hourly moves

20:00 · +35.0pp → 82¢
18:00 · +27.5pp → 75¢
17:00 · +32.5pp → 79¢
15:00 · +23.0pp → 73¢
09:00 · +25.5pp → 69¢
07:00 · +25.0pp → 69¢
06:00 · +31.0pp → 75¢
03:00 · +27.5pp → 71¢

updated 20:52:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 20:52:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventStarmer out by...?

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Starmer out by July 31, 2026?"?

As of Fri, 19 Jun 2026 20:52:33 GMT, YES is priced at 86% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +24.0pp in the last 24 hours, +3.0pp in the last hour, and +44.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 31, 2026 (2026-07-31T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$174.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $472.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $48.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket