Political-Shakedown
0xdf4585e7b6629d95355bfb6bbc98cbd39215a73e
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$383.08
Total PnL
$-7.54
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
352 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$351.83
$-0.18
- NO
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
17 shares @ 83.9¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$7.27
$-7.23
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
7 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$6.70
$-0.00
- NO
Will LGD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?
3 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.99
$-0.01
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
3 shares @ 97.7¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.97
$-0.03
- NO
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
3 shares @ 98.0¢·now 95.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.91
$-0.09
- YES
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60?
2 shares @ 97.6¢·now 97.2¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$1.77
$-0.01
- NO
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.30
$-0.00
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1 shares @ 87.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.18
$0.05
- YES
Will Guillermo del Toro appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?
1 shares @ 95.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.06
$-0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?$352.02Jul 15, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Invictus Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?$1.06Jul 15, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 160m by August 31?$1.07Jul 15, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60?$1.78Jul 15, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Guillermo del Toro appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?$1.08Jul 15, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?$344.11Jul 15, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 15, 19:59 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Gus" - A Mounted Tyrannosaurus Rex Skeleton sell for at least $25m at auction?$1.35Jul 14, 21:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Phoebe Bridgers attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$1.81Jul 14, 19:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the earnings call not air?$3.51Jul 14, 14:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 14?$1.01Jul 14, 12:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?$4.95Jul 13, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?$346.39Jul 13, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?$1.00Jul 13, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?$1.00Jul 13, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?$1.02Jul 13, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?$1.00Jul 13, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$3.00Jul 13, 05:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $78.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 22:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 20:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.