Willing-Minnow
0xdf6da574f8b0c0ce5e01ddb1c5a49b87993e9c5c
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$18.2K
Total PnL
$-92.6K
Realised
$46.1K
Win rate
91%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
8888 shares @ 50.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.8K
$3.3K
- NO
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
4532 shares @ 59.9¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.2K
$-472.05
- NO
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3427 shares @ 54.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.0K
$188.48
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15407 shares @ 19.3¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.9K
$-1.0K
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
10842 shares @ 41.2¢·now 12.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.3K
$-3.1K
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
7396 shares @ 3.5¢·now 5.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$417.90
$155.21
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3254 shares @ 0.7¢·now 9.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$301.00
$278.96
- YES
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
14046 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$217.71
$45.71
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4253 shares @ 0.9¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$206.27
$167.25
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3694 shares @ 1.0¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$179.16
$140.55
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.57Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.57Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.58Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.58Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.35Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- SPLITWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$3.3KJul 23, 18:52 UTC
- YIELD$1.31Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.26Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.25Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$1.25Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.24Jul 20, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$1.26Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.27Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.27Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.27Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.28Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$1.30Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.04Jul 13, 01:02 UTC
- YIELD$1.29Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.82Jul 12, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
55 closed markets, 91% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.