Hidden-Bulb
0xe02c5438dfb907d5ac4cbf3967b45d14e4ed5d08
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$5.9K
Total PnL
$-221.0K
Realised
$8.4K
Win rate
37%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?
3853 shares @ 91.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.7K
$163.75
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
2110 shares @ 86.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.0K
$137.65
- YES
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
361 shares @ 62.1¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$95.56
$-128.42
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 75.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.28
$1.93
- YES
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?
55 shares @ 59.4¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.20
$-19.45
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
20 shares @ 53.8¢·now 58.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$11.70
$0.95
- NO
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
10 shares @ 70.5¢·now 99.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.91
$2.86
- NO
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
10 shares @ 71.5¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.76
$2.60
- NO
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
10 shares @ 79.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.95
$1.00
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
10 shares @ 80.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.65
$0.65
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
37% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
30 closed markets, 37% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $831.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 21:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.