Scented-Solidarity
0xe048846d696542741de1872b4b8d275d04dcfd3e
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$81.55
Total PnL
$-8.8K
Realised
$-40.05
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
267 shares @ 26.2¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$81.55
$11.55
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
39000 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-2.6K
- YES
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
9497 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-99.99
- YES
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?
7235 shares @ 67.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-4.9K
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
3750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R House
3293 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-262.77
- YES
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?
3074 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-32.91
- YES
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?
2008 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-39.26
- YES
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?
1768 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-34.52
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
1364 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$20.00Jun 10, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$10.00Jun 10, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Allah again by May 31?$10.00May 1, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$50.00May 1, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$30.00Apr 19, 03:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$131.40Apr 19, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$15.00Mar 18, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$44.90Mar 18, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$94.27Mar 9, 12:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$94.27Mar 9, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$94.64Mar 9, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$94.64Mar 9, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$82.80Mar 5, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?$82.80Feb 28, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?$91.44Feb 28, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?$0.81Feb 28, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?$0.16Feb 28, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$100.00Jan 29, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?$100.00Jan 28, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?$15.00Jan 15, 22:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
11/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $107.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 3, 19:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 11:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.