Political-Raisin
0xe0ae08d6a9f128069ac3c5bfd06f64f918ecf3de
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-108.12
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
50000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-49.95
- YES
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?
17933 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.3K
- YES
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?
7327 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-36.64
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
1862 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?
278 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- NO
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?
89 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?
11 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$12.03Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$0.16Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.5KJul 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$5.04Jul 13, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.54Jul 13, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$20.00Jul 13, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$877.75Jul 13, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$37.09Jul 13, 17:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$49.83Jul 13, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$50.08Jul 13, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$49.99Jul 13, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 13?$19.1KJul 13, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 13?$6.0KJul 13, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 13?$999.00Jul 13, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 13?$999.00Jul 13, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$225.00Jul 13, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 13?$999.00Jul 13, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 13?$4.0KJul 13, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 13?$999.00Jul 13, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$233.66Jul 13, 08:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $598.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.