Runny-Bonnet
0xe1360c054d215b48b90b46f7c094efe711eecace
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$622.34
Total PnL
$-638.46
Realised
$18.80
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- SPACEX
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
371 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$371.00
$81.62
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
262 shares @ 52.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$237.11
$100.87
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?
11 shares @ 86.0¢·now 95.2¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$10.47
$1.01
- YES
Rippling IPO before 2027?
19 shares @ 19.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.75
$-0.85
- YES
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
3 shares @ 54.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$-0.83
- UP
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
927 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-472.77
- YES
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?
499 shares @ 65.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-326.85
- YES
Will Tempo launch a token by March 31, 2026?
147 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-32.34
- YES
Google Gemini Parlay
30 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.90
- YES
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?
1 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.22
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$42.35Apr 27, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$11.00Apr 27, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$97.90Apr 27, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?$280.44Apr 27, 09:48 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?$257.07Apr 27, 09:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?$46.92Apr 27, 08:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?$218.96Apr 27, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?$255.84Apr 23, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?$234.52Apr 23, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?$250.24Apr 23, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMLouisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers$274.00Apr 15, 08:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Crazy" be said 15+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)$276.00Apr 15, 08:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$120.84Apr 11, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$69.44Apr 11, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$488.80Mar 29, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$159.51Mar 25, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$9.21Mar 25, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$11.17Mar 25, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$4.92Mar 25, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$0.21Mar 25, 19:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $108.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 16:45 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 10:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.