Wallet digest

whaleinsufficient history

Activity score

88/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$83.3K

Total PnL

$-3.2K

Realised

$-2.0K

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
50000 shares @ 80.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$36.8K
$-3.3K
NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
33727 shares @ 85.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$29.5K
$843.17
YES
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
14540 shares @ 75.6¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$12.0K
$1.0K
NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
5092 shares @ 95.3¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026
$5.1K
$220.08
YES
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
158 shares @ 6.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$1.82
$-7.76

Recent activity

MAKER_REBATE$115.30Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
REWARD$0.10Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
REWARD$21.45Jul 30, 00:00 UTC
REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$150.0KJul 29, 20:02 UTC
TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.0KJul 29, 19:42 UTC
TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$3.80Jul 29, 19:41 UTC
TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$10.0KJul 29, 19:40 UTC
TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$10.0KJul 29, 19:39 UTC
TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$7.60Jul 29, 19:39 UTC
TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$6.7KJul 29, 19:38 UTC
TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$6.3KJul 29, 19:34 UTC
TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$72.06Jul 29, 19:34 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$37.8KJul 29, 17:23 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$359.36Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
REWARD$0.22Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
REWARD$88.91Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$45.9KJul 28, 22:03 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$7.0KJul 28, 19:42 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$738.93Jul 28, 19:41 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$22.3KJul 28, 19:40 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$181.8K

Trades

Buy share

100%

Window

May 21, 02:30 UTC → May 26, 07:45 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $0.00

BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$6.9K@73¢May 23, 23:35 UTC
BUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$19.8K@100¢May 21, 02:27 UTC

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

100%

Sample

limited

5 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

$92.0K · 51% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?51% of recorded volume$92.0K Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?19% of recorded volume$34.6K US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?16% of recorded volume$28.5K

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry0 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk82 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 39
Avg trade size: $7.8K
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
Last active: Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 02:30:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data