Giving-Dwell
0xe29a76c88e8c2058a7cfa3c1b2c12c50cd67c56f
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$571.32
Total PnL
$-953.86
Realised
$117.44
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- YES
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026?
223 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$222.77
$51.24
- YES
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?
282 shares @ 14.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$148.05
$108.57
- NO
Blue tsunami in 2026?
200 shares @ 68.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$111.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?
83 shares @ 30.6¢·now 85.6¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$71.05
$45.65
- YES
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?
300 shares @ 17.0¢·now 6.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$18.45
$-32.55
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 28, 2026?
1500 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 27, 2026?
1200 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.60
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in February?
1073 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-21.63
- YES
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?
1000 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-12.47
Recent activity
- TRADESELLLabour leadership election scheduled by June 30?$83.94Apr 21, 20:54 UTC
- TRADESELLLabour leadership election scheduled by June 30?$24.00Apr 16, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 10 be between 70 and 80?$60.56Mar 18, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 10 be between 70 and 80?$37.60Mar 18, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 130 to 149 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?$3.80Mar 17, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 130 to 149 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?$5.66Mar 17, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 10 be between 80 and 90?$13.52Mar 17, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 10 be between 70 and 80?$34.38Mar 17, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 10 be between 70 and 80?$6.38Mar 16, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 10 be between 70 and 80?$29.04Mar 16, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$43.79Mar 16, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$8.32Mar 16, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$28.95Mar 16, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 130 to 149 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?$4.34Mar 11, 09:14 UTC
- REWARD$0.14Mar 10, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.30–2.40 in February?$13.40Mar 9, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$30.00Mar 9, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$95.00Mar 9, 21:38 UTC
- REWARD$0.86Mar 9, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March?$9.01Mar 9, 20:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $22.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 26, 23:02 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 21, 20:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.