Big-Hearted-Pamphlet
0xe2bf60f18aab4a9b2a65f294d5b25d17a9f8cb5a
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$481.15
Total PnL
$-112.44
Realised
$1.42
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
305 shares @ 98.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$299.54
$-0.46
- NO
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
103 shares @ 97.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$98.64
$-1.36
- YES
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
133 shares @ 75.1¢·now 25.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.29
$-66.71
- NO
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
10 shares @ 97.1¢·now 97.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$9.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
10 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$9.97
$-0.03
- NO
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027?
10 shares @ 98.5¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.80
$-0.20
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
19 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.71
$-0.29
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
55 shares @ 91.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.22
$-44.78
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 92.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.97
$-0.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 17?$15.15Jul 20, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 17?$10.17Jul 16, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.07Jul 16, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?$10.01Jul 16, 15:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$20.00Jul 15, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?$10.22Jul 15, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?$10.24Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$5.00Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$5.00Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?$5.12Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$10.10Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$10.09Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?$10.00Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?$9.98Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$20.05Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$20.09Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$20.13Jul 15, 20:57 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?$0.00Jul 15, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$64.04Jul 15, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.02Jul 15, 20:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $71.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 02:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.