Authentic-Gander
0xe31f8b3d9f2fb58594c02aed736c0164f252bb83
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
136
Open notional
$26.92
Total PnL
$-205.28
Realised
$25.42
Win rate
59%
58 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 136- NO
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
7 shares @ 58.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$6.91
$2.83
- NO
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
7 shares @ 60.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$6.41
$2.34
- YES
Will Tom Tiffany win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$2.24
$0.23
- NO
Will Travis Grantham be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
2 shares @ 96.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$2.11
$0.08
- NO
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2 shares @ 96.4¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.05
$0.07
- NO
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 96.5¢·now 95.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.98
$-0.03
- YES
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 12.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.45
$0.29
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
5 shares @ 42.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$-0.98
- NO
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
6 shares @ 37.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.92
$-1.14
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
14 shares @ 14.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.79
$-1.21
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$2.02Jul 9, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$2.20Jul 9, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$2.24Jul 9, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$2.90Jul 9, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$3.07Jul 9, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?$4.00Jul 9, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMMegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?$5.00Jul 9, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$6.09Jul 9, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?$0.13Apr 19, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?$0.14Apr 19, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?$0.14Apr 19, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Rockets (-5.5)$2.13Apr 19, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYRockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5$2.00Apr 19, 01:43 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Suns (-3.5)$3.13Apr 18, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Suns (-3.5)$0.06Apr 18, 02:44 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Suns (-3.5)$0.21Apr 18, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Suns (-3.5)$2.04Apr 18, 02:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.30Apr 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.15Apr 17, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.25Apr 17, 14:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 58 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
58 closed markets, 59% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $1.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 8, 19:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 01:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 58 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.