0xe3aeb10c729dbef5f382bc229dca0660583d217a
0xe3aeb10c729dbef5f382bc229dca0660583d217a
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$118.30
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$-20.15
Win rate
42%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2027?
64 shares @ 19.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$38.06
$25.91
- NO
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31?
146 shares @ 13.0¢·now 8.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.75
$-7.23
- YES
Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
71 shares @ 12.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.61
$2.12
- YES
Will Congress override any veto in 2026?
125 shares @ 12.0¢·now 7.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.31
$-5.69
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
149 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$8.20
$-3.73
- YES
D4vd released from custody in 2026?
122 shares @ 8.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.32
$-2.44
- YES
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
75 shares @ 12.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.13
$-1.88
- YES
Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?
312 shares @ 6.0¢·now 2.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.24
$-12.48
- NO
Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
61 shares @ 17.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.58
$-5.79
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by July 31?
230 shares @ 4.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.56
$-5.63
Recent activity
- TRADESELLNaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?$14.02Jul 21, 01:18 UTC
- TRADESELLNaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?$3.00Jul 20, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLNaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?$0.14Jul 20, 02:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tim Walz resign by July 31?$0.01Jul 10, 13:44 UTC
- TRADESELLJames Comey charges dropped by July 31?$3.50Jul 10, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$0.02Jul 10, 02:23 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$0.03Jul 9, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$0.00Jul 9, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$0.00Jul 9, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$0.09Jul 9, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$5.50Jul 9, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US strike 10 countries in 2026?$3.70Jul 9, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$6.14Jul 9, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by July 31?$0.11Jul 9, 11:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance attend NATO Summit?$0.05Jul 9, 08:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FISA Section 702 be reauthorized by June 30?$1.60Jul 9, 06:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$0.19Jul 9, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by July 31?$0.36Jul 9, 03:59 UTC
- TRADESELLGreece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?$0.62Jul 9, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?$1.20Jul 8, 23:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
31 closed markets, 42% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 11:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 01:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.