D4vd released from custody in 2026?

1. 1

   Up 2pp over 24h

   Now 9¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $13.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if D4vd (a.k.a. David Anthony Burke) is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If D4vd is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If D4vd is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting D4vd to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.