SportsExpires Nov 3, 2026
Creator

Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Probability

84¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$11.3K

Liquidity

$15.9K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
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Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 19:00May 4, 2026, 04:07
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 84¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $15.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 4387.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 84¢.

Biggest hourly move: +40.5pp at 08:00 (to 83¢).

Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
  • 04:07 · +38.0pp → 84¢
  • 03:00 · +38.0pp → 84¢
  • 02:00 · +38.0pp → 84¢
  • 00:00 · +22.5pp → 84¢
  • 11:00 · +40.5pp → 83¢
  • 10:00 · +40.5pp → 83¢
  • 09:00 · +40.5pp → 83¢
  • 08:00 · +40.5pp → 83¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhich states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.

Alerts

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Top Holders

10 wallets
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