0xe3f62167f3c95ed486ddc4dc76cfdf5f796932a4
0xe3f62167f3c95ed486ddc4dc76cfdf5f796932a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
60
Open notional
$103.28
Total PnL
$-1.63
Realised
$-1.90
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
13 shares @ 95.2¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.59
$0.59
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16 shares @ 68.7¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.77
$0.77
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?
7 shares @ 82.3¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.32
$0.31
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?
7 shares @ 90.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.83
$-0.17
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat?
4 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.04
$0.04
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
3 shares @ 75.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.37
$0.37
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the WV-01 House seat?
2 shares @ 92.5¢·now 93.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.03
$0.03
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-06 House seat?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.01
$0.01
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the AL-06 House seat?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.01
$0.01
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?
3 shares @ 70.5¢·now 70.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.99
$-0.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.46Jul 7, 15:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$5.67Jul 6, 00:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$1.82Jul 4, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$1.00Jul 2, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$1.00Jul 2, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$1.00Jul 2, 18:44 UTC
- REDEEMAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$3.05Jul 2, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$1.02Jul 1, 20:48 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$10.32Jul 1, 06:58 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.09Jul 1, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$3.09Jul 1, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 29, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 29, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 29, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jun 29, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$1.00Jun 29, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$1.00Jun 28, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$1.00Jun 25, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$1.00Jun 25, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$1.00Jun 25, 05:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 00:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 15:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.