Caring-Flax
0xe43bcfce151350dc653ca22bc76fea01c3113497
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$181.53
Total PnL
$-781.80
Realised
$-232.86
Win rate
33%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- NO
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026?
153 shares @ 37.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$136.94
$80.33
- NO
Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?
37 shares @ 23.4¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$35.17
$26.51
- YES
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?
160 shares @ 51.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$8.72
$-72.88
- YES
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
4 shares @ 40.1¢·now 16.6¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.66
$-0.94
- YES
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
1 shares @ 17.1¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.04
$-0.13
- YES
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.05
- YES
Will Trump end NASA in 2025?
361 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.97
- YES
David Baszucki out as Roblox CEO in 2025?
306 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.67
- NO
Will "Trump" be said 3+ times during the World Cup Draw on December 5?
304 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-48.64
- YES
Will "The Abandons" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)
286 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-3.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.50May 28, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMCerebras IPO before 2027?$0.98May 28, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$1.00May 28, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00May 28, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026?$13.00May 28, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMBonk Guy mindshare all time high by March 31?$48.00May 28, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?$61.00May 28, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?$381.96May 28, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tempo launch a token by March 31, 2026?$573.00May 28, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?$5.40Feb 8, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?$14.72Feb 8, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLPacifica FDV above $2B one day after launch?$48.04Feb 8, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLPacifica FDV above $2B one day after launch?$59.43Feb 8, 19:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026?$73.16Feb 8, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$67.05Jan 11, 22:44 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$83.25Jan 11, 22:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?$77.70Jan 11, 22:41 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$269.44Jan 11, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$312.84Jan 11, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$7.47Jan 11, 17:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $122.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 04:49 UTC
- Last active
- May 28, 08:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.