Hilarious-Durian-Clearing
0xe54e5abff0a6e4d4af65af556593d5be31708699
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$12.98
Total PnL
$-109.90
Realised
$-4.11
Win rate
0%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- DOWN
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
6 shares @ 78.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$3.93
$-0.75
- YES
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
15 shares @ 33.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.41
$-1.59
- YES
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
17 shares @ 29.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$2.67
$-2.33
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.09
$0.09
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
1 shares @ 91.4¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
3 shares @ 36.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.51
$-0.49
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
1 shares @ 68.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.32
$-0.68
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
80 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
61 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump approval Up or Down this week?$4.72Aug 10, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYGianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?$5.17Aug 4, 11:52 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$11.25Jun 22, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$3.90Jun 19, 22:38 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.47Jun 5, 15:00 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?$1.13Jun 1, 13:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?$1.30Jun 1, 13:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?$1.08May 24, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?$1.00May 24, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 18?$6.43May 18, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$5.47May 18, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$5.09May 18, 05:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$2.19May 18, 05:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$1.91May 18, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$5.09May 18, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$5.17May 18, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$0.00May 18, 05:08 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$4.62May 18, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$5.23May 18, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$5.09May 18, 05:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
32 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $4.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 15:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 01:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.