Sweaty-Macaroon
0xe5e1f364abf0da8465101ab61ede10fe9430f089
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$116.62
Total PnL
$-2.04
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
12 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.51
$0.51
- NO
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on May 31?
10 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$10.31
$0.31
- NO
Deel IPO before 2027?
11 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.27
$0.27
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9 shares @ 95.5¢·now 99.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.34
$0.34
- NO
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
14 shares @ 86.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.21
$-2.79
- NO
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?
8 shares @ 95.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$8.37
$0.37
- NO
Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?
8 shares @ 96.0¢·now 97.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.09
$0.09
- NO
Vanta IPO before 2027?
9 shares @ 92.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.87
$-0.13
- NO
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
8 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$7.87
$0.87
- NO
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by June 30?
7 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$7.45
$0.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by June 30?$7.02May 25, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?$6.03May 25, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?$8.01May 25, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on May 31?$10.01May 25, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$7.03May 25, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYVanta IPO before 2027?$8.03May 25, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeel IPO before 2027?$10.03May 25, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?$11.02May 25, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$5.05May 25, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?$8.01May 25, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?$7.02May 25, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMGemini 3.5 released by April 30?$2.15May 25, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on April 23?$3.01May 25, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on April 23?$5.36May 25, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$8.93May 25, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 23?$12.21May 25, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$12.46May 25, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMDota 2: Ivory vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A$16.99May 25, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 23?$21.92May 25, 13:29 UTC
- REWARD$0.76May 9, 00:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $11.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 5, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- May 25, 13:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.