Mature-Competence
0xe6c5d17568164c2fc43242422b80a6ec5ce78732
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
89
Open notional
$335.13
Total PnL
$-11.6K
Realised
$408.12
Win rate
74%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 89- YES
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
144 shares @ 69.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$144.44
$44.44
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
890 shares @ 24.8¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$102.36
$-118.80
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
376 shares @ 63.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$88.33
$-148.46
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
3280 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.4K
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
2873 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-35.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
2350 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
2170 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-66.67
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
2009 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-95.08
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
1403 shares @ 16.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-231.57
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
1271 shares @ 22.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-282.52
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$35.01Mar 29, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$35.01Mar 29, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$66.67Mar 29, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$66.67Mar 29, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$204.72Mar 29, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$204.71Mar 29, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$236.79Mar 29, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$100.00Mar 29, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$20.00Mar 29, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$100.00Mar 29, 11:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$0.00Mar 29, 11:14 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iraq by March 7?$0.00Mar 29, 11:11 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iraq by March 7?$0.00Mar 29, 11:10 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iraq by March 7?$456.79Mar 29, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iraq by March 7?$273.32Mar 5, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$3.76Mar 5, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$21.85Mar 5, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$10.00Mar 5, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$20.00Mar 5, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$100.00Mar 5, 01:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
74% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $119.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 4, 05:02 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 29, 23:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.