Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

1. 1

   Down 6pp over 24h

   Now 38¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Light volume — move on a thin book

   Only $5.9k traded against $45.9k of visible liquidity (0.13× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1567h with open resolution ambiguity.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.