Calculating-Plugin
0xe71d94b0c62faafdc88e744c96ad82c1646b7359
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
116
Open notional
$207.28
Total PnL
$-850.79
Realised
$-12.60
Win rate
50%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 116- NO
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?
11 shares @ 93.6¢·now 93.7¢·exp Oct 22, 2026$10.01
$0.01
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
12 shares @ 85.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$9.41
$-0.59
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
28 shares @ 44.4¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.30
$-4.20
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
8 shares @ 95.3¢·now 90.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$7.58
$-0.42
- NO
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
8 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.27
$0.27
- NO
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?
9 shares @ 94.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$7.19
$-0.81
- NO
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
7 shares @ 96.9¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.03
$0.03
- YES
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
9 shares @ 70.1¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.91
$0.66
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?
7 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.62
$0.11
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
7 shares @ 85.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.14
$0.14
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$6.50Jul 29, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$5.03Jul 29, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$5.05Jul 29, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?$10.03Jul 28, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$5.00Jul 28, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$8.91Jul 28, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$5.62Jul 27, 22:37 UTC
- TRADESELLUnit FDV above $200M one day after launch?$6.08Jul 26, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$10.00Jul 26, 13:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$3.57Jul 25, 06:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$11.09Jul 24, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$5.07Jul 24, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$5.00Jul 23, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?$5.05Jul 22, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?$5.00Jul 22, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage$5.75Jul 21, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$5.00Jul 21, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage$5.03Jul 21, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$5.14Jul 20, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$5.02Jul 20, 14:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$160.7K
Trades
7
Buy share
50%
Window
May 19, 05:20 UTC → May 31, 06:05 UTC
- SELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$6.7K@100¢May 31, 06:04 UTC
- SELLWill Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$7.0K@100¢May 29, 03:38 UTC
- BUYWill Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$6.9K@100¢May 28, 04:25 UTC
- SELLWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?$7.6K@100¢May 25, 07:06 UTC
- BUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$7.0K@100¢May 25, 04:16 UTC
- BUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?$7.6K@100¢May 23, 03:15 UTC
- SELLWill Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$8.2K@100¢May 20, 04:26 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 22 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
medium
22 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
$16.4K · 10% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $6.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 05:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 20:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.