Lavish-Truck
0xe7a05852cd33e6959ddd2fdaab0a284ab37869ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$156.67
Total PnL
$-66.22
Realised
$-3.10
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?
40 shares @ 95.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$37.79
$-0.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 31?
30 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.98
$0.58
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 1?
26 shares @ 96.5¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$25.21
$0.10
- YES
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
30 shares @ 32.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$22.05
$12.45
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 2?
20 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$19.70
$-0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 2?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$9.85
$-0.05
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
25 shares @ 12.2¢·now 23.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$5.88
$2.83
- NO
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 48.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.97
$-1.03
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
10 shares @ 28.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.20
$-0.60
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
30 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.04
$-13.76
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$4.78Jul 31, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 2?$9.90Jul 31, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 2?$19.81Jul 31, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?$3.12Jul 31, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?$15.67Jul 31, 01:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 30?$20.00Jul 30, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 1?$19.20Jul 30, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?$19.42Jul 30, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 1?$5.91Jul 30, 20:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$39.96Jul 30, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 36°C on July 29?$30.00Jul 29, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$0.59Jul 29, 23:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on July 29?$20.00Jul 29, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 31?$29.40Jul 29, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$7.00Jul 29, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 30?$19.90Jul 29, 11:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$6.39Jul 29, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 36°C on July 29?$29.82Jul 28, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$13.08Jul 28, 04:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$4.96Jul 28, 04:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $13.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 23:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 09:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.