Tragic-Limitation
0xe7ec1224a01d96d86021eb630c76376b57e79dda
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$575.95
Total PnL
$-407.33
Realised
$-156.01
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
1296 shares @ 24.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$375.82
$64.42
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
648 shares @ 18.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$106.87
$-9.76
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
289 shares @ 18.3¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.40
$3.39
- YES
Iran Nuke before 2027?
695 shares @ 8.6¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.85
$-23.14
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
1171 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
477 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-114.55
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
466 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.67
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$14.00Jul 13, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$22.00Jul 13, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$8.95Jul 13, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$0.23Jul 12, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$250.00Jul 12, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$266.62Jul 12, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$2.22Jul 12, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$50.00Jul 12, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$66.50Jul 10, 02:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$30.00Jul 8, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$10.00Jul 8, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$50.00Jul 8, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$89.97Jul 8, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$265.00Jul 3, 20:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$263.47Jul 1, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$145.00Jun 29, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$146.91Jun 29, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$98.00Jun 27, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$179.00Jun 27, 02:41 UTC
- TRADESELLAnthropic IPO before 2027?$16.83Jun 27, 02:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $66.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 22:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 23:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.