Tragic-Limitation
0xe7ec1224a01d96d86021eb630c76376b57e79dda
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$183.45
Total PnL
$-446.72
Realised
$-59.26
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
388 shares @ 33.5¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$79.44
$-50.23
- YES
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
74 shares @ 67.8¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$51.28
$1.28
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
389 shares @ 17.8¢·now 6.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$24.87
$-44.13
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
104 shares @ 24.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.19
$-7.81
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
42 shares @ 60.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$8.12
$-16.88
- YES
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
32 shares @ 15.7¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.55
$-2.45
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
1171 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$25.003d ago
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$25.004d ago
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$14.008d ago
- TRADESELLKash Patel out by June 30?$14.418d ago
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by June 30?$28.1313d ago
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by April 30?$10.0013d ago
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$10.0013d ago
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$50.0014d ago
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$24.1522d ago
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$10.0022d ago
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$20.0022d ago
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$25.0022d ago
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$25.0023d ago
- YIELD$0.0023d ago
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$10.0023d ago
- TRADESELLWill Trump be impeached by end of 2026?$15.9123d ago
- YIELD$0.0024d ago
- YIELD$0.0025d ago
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$13.1025d ago
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$13.0925d ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $29.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 34d ago
- Last active
- 3d ago
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".
