Grumpy-Pagoda
0xe810acf317b8c853742201455083438a5f5b4eb4
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
80
Open notional
$7.91
Total PnL
$-140.08
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
8 shares @ 24.7¢·now 18.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.48
$-0.52
- YES
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
11 shares @ 18.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.39
$-0.61
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.34
$0.34
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
12 shares @ 16.7¢·now 10.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.24
$-0.76
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
2 shares @ 43.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?
10 shares @ 9.7¢·now 6.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$0.62
$-0.38
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
16 shares @ 6.1¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.61
$-0.39
- NO
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
2 shares @ 48.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.18
$-0.82
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
118 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
69 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYOusmane Dembélé: 1+ goals$1.04Jul 14, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5$1.03Jul 14, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Spain end in a draw?$1.03Jul 14, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$1.02Jul 14, 16:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$3.81Jul 12, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$1.03Jul 11, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYHarry Kane: 1+ goals$1.03Jul 11, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYErling Haaland: 1+ goals$1.03Jul 11, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-14?$1.03Jul 11, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$6.13Jul 11, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. England: Team to Advance AND Norway to score first vs. England?$0.98Jul 11, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-10?$1.64Jul 10, 21:38 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score$1.89Jul 10, 21:15 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. Morocco: France O/U 1.5 AND France to score first vs. Morocco?$1.76Jul 9, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-09? AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$1.99Jul 9, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$1.02Jul 9, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.06Jul 9, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$10.78Jul 9, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$5.21Jul 9, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$1.04Jul 9, 20:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $1.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 09:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 16:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.