0xe86c87278a93437858fee35fb1eba690cf6f739b
0xe86c87278a93437858fee35fb1eba690cf6f739b
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
87
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- NO
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
20643 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-21.98
- NO
Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 28?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
16000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-42.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 8?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?$5.40Jun 12, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?$2.03Jun 12, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$5.40Jun 3, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?$5.35May 30, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?$5.35May 30, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24?$20.00May 20, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?$10.90May 17, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?$3.60May 4, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4?$10.71May 4, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?$10.72May 4, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYQatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?$20.00May 3, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$20.00Apr 30, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$14.70Apr 28, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$10.00Apr 27, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27?$8.76Apr 27, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$12.00Apr 24, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?$18.00Apr 22, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?$1.75Apr 22, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18?$115.24Apr 17, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19?$10.00Apr 17, 15:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $42.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 14:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 15:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.