Shrill-Maelstrom
0xea405cc8b16abdd29023feb5ba626189815a86b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$339.24
Total PnL
$-28.61
Realised
$-1.34
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- NO
US x China tariff agreement by July 31?
64 shares @ 93.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$57.86
$-1.95
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 75.0¢·now 94.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.41
$5.79
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
26 shares @ 92.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$25.39
$1.64
- NO
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
32 shares @ 76.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.35
$0.81
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
35 shares @ 73.6¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$19.29
$-6.77
- NO
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?
21 shares @ 85.4¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.79
$0.12
- NO
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?
21 shares @ 73.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.59
$2.39
- NO
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 76.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.59
$2.48
- YES
Blue wave in 2026?
17 shares @ 71.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$12.42
$0.58
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
12 shares @ 93.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$12.32
$0.80
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Stinky by July 31?$0.85Jul 4, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July?$5.16Jul 4, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by July 31?$8.73Jul 4, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by July 31?$4.84Jul 4, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by July 31?$4.80Jul 4, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June?$5.03Jul 4, 06:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?$5.20Jul 4, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June?$15.40Jul 4, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June?$10.15Jul 4, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by July 31?$7.68Jul 4, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$0.54Jul 4, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 8–9 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?$4.81Jul 4, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by July 31?$4.80Jul 4, 01:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$10.32Jul 4, 00:31 UTC
- REDEEME. Jean Carroll federally charged by June 30, 2026?$5.16Jul 3, 23:50 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$13.04Jul 3, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?$4.79Jul 3, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$1.27Jul 3, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July 2026?$1.60Jul 3, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July?$4.80Jul 3, 08:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $4.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 23:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.