Alarmed-Tunic
0xea6868ff91ab3a375e26e68012af82ad12cfc2ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$22.47
Total PnL
$3.39
Realised
$-2.46
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
7 shares @ 29.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$6.78
$4.78
- NO
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
4 shares @ 53.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.09
$1.90
- YES
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
3 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$2.56
$0.56
- YES
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?
2 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$2.47
$0.47
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
2 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.30
$0.30
- NO
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?
2 shares @ 92.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$2.15
$0.15
- NO
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 94.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.11
$0.11
- YES
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28?
3 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Government shutdown on Saturday?
2 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.43
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.48Apr 29, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWeed rescheduled by June 30?$2.26Apr 22, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWeed rescheduled by June 30?$1.67Apr 22, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?$2.33Apr 21, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?$2.00Apr 21, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$1.55Apr 18, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$1.57Apr 18, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$2.00Apr 18, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$2.00Apr 18, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$2.70Apr 17, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.45Apr 17, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$2.00Apr 17, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$2.33Apr 17, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$2.27Apr 17, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$2.00Apr 17, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.57Apr 12, 02:42 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.81Apr 11, 19:21 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$1.57Apr 11, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2.00Apr 11, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$2.00Apr 11, 11:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 20:01 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 29, 06:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.