Creative-Diction
0xeab61f1c7168138db3e0bb87acadfb77ce8dd4c6
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
101
Open notional
$3.7K
Total PnL
$-71.81
Realised
$448.55
Win rate
58%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 101- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-10 House seat?
320 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$302.40
$4.80
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
470 shares @ 53.9¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$265.75
$12.06
- NO
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
297 shares @ 80.9¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$254.01
$13.59
- NO
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?
259 shares @ 81.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$252.33
$42.62
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
266 shares @ 93.8¢·now 94.4¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$251.10
$1.60
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
243 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$231.75
$25.48
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
535 shares @ 6.9¢·now 27.6¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$147.67
$110.65
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
190 shares @ 72.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$137.91
$0.98
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
245 shares @ 54.7¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$133.54
$-0.59
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 26?
150 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$129.75
$-0.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$5.88Jul 25, 19:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 26?$4.99Jul 25, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$1.12Jul 25, 19:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$18.40Jul 25, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$47.61Jul 25, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$67.08Jul 25, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026?$16.60Jul 25, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?$2.85Jul 25, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?$6.13Jul 25, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$34.50Jul 25, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$8.94Jul 25, 18:40 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: GenOne vs BET-M 33 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage$0.00Jul 25, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$26.00Jul 25, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?$7.19Jul 25, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?$8.42Jul 25, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?$130.97Jul 25, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 26?$0.97Jul 25, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$2.05Jul 25, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$1.62Jul 25, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$2.01Jul 25, 18:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
53 closed markets, 58% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $17.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 16:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 19:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.