Fragrant-Fur
0xec52da8ce6ddf1743240f86d643b47d7459059e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
71
Open notional
$3.4K
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$22.01
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
2000 shares @ 87.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$70.00
- UNDER
France vs. Spain: Spain O/U 3.5 Corners
1240 shares @ 35.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$384.40
$-49.60
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 83.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$317.49
$-97.50
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
200 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$191.40
$21.40
- YES
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
200 shares @ 54.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$119.00
$11.00
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
500 shares @ 15.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.50
$-7.50
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
100 shares @ 56.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$63.50
$7.50
- NO
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 Week of July 13 2026?
60 shares @ 77.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$49.50
$3.30
- YES
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $244 Week of July 13 2026?
60 shares @ 90.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$48.60
$-5.40
- NO
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $720 Week of July 13 2026?
50 shares @ 75.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$44.50
$7.00
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$2.24Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Spain O/U 3.5 Corners$80.50Jul 13, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Spain O/U 3.5 Corners$3.50Jul 13, 14:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of July 13 2026?$100.00Jul 13, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $397.50 Week of July 13 2026?$40.00Jul 13, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of July 13 2026?$50.00Jul 13, 13:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of July 13 2026?$20.00Jul 13, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of July 13 2026?$0.04Jul 13, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of July 13 2026?$12.59Jul 13, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of July 13 2026?$15.54Jul 13, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $123 Week of July 13 2026?$12.98Jul 13, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 Week of July 13 2026?$36.14Jul 13, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $244 Week of July 13 2026?$54.22Jul 13, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of July 13 2026?$32.75Jul 13, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $72.50 Week of July 13 2026?$40.00Jul 13, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 Week of July 13 2026?$41.91Jul 13, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $720 Week of July 13 2026?$37.88Jul 13, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 Week of July 13 2026?$22.00Jul 13, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $650 Week of July 13 2026?$31.87Jul 13, 07:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $68.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 21:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.