Double-Valley
0xec829edacf53dad6fdfb89f752ca7b8004a26eaa
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-199.67
Realised
$32.56
Win rate
43%
82 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
226 shares @ 4.7¢·now 42.7¢·exp Jan 29, 2027$96.58
$85.85
- YES
Will Perplexity’s market cap be less than $20B at market close on IPO day?
398 shares @ 3.8¢·now 5.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$23.48
$8.36
- YES
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by more than 10%?
105 shares @ 6.2¢·now 21.8¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$22.93
$16.35
- YES
Printr FDV above $300M one day after launch?
200 shares @ 7.0¢·now 10.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$20.30
$6.30
- YES
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
129 shares @ 10.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$18.71
$5.81
- YES
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day?
398 shares @ 4.5¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$18.10
$0.21
- YES
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?
200 shares @ 4.1¢·now 8.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$17.28
$9.08
- YES
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?
131 shares @ 2.5¢·now 12.2¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$16.03
$12.74
- YES
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day?
200 shares @ 4.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$16.00
$8.00
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
192 shares @ 2.5¢·now 7.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$15.19
$10.27
Recent activity
- TRADESELLDreamcash FDV above $400M one day after launch?$1.34Jul 28, 12:48 UTC
- TRADESELLInk FDV above $2B one day after launch?$2.36Jul 28, 07:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.80Jul 28, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine?$0.16Jul 28, 06:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the AL-05 House seat?$7.00Jul 28, 02:34 UTC
- REWARD$3.37Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.20Jul 27, 22:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?$2.32Jul 27, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?$1.80Jul 27, 22:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Tiffany win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?$0.60Jul 27, 21:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$2.27Jul 27, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$16.71Jul 27, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?$5.73Jul 27, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027?$0.18Jul 27, 20:24 UTC
- TRADESELLVentuals FDV above $2B one day after launch?$1.46Jul 27, 18:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?$3.25Jul 27, 12:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$0.06Jul 27, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.40Jul 27, 05:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?$1.40Jul 27, 04:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?$14.00Jul 27, 02:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 82 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
82 closed markets, 43% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 07:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 12:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 82 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.