Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.2pp
24h Vol
$197.45
Liquidity
$18.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 7¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4590h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $18.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4590.1h
- 17:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 4590h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.2pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Biggest hourly move: +3.4pp at 15:00 (to 7¢).
Show all 2 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +3.4pp → 7¢
- 15:00 · +3.4pp → 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Associated PressNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.