Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?
Probability
16¢
1h
-2.1pp
24h
+1.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$6.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 16¢; -2.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 22.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5981.0h
- 18:57SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.3pp over the last 24h, now 16¢.
Biggest hourly move: +18.5pp at 2d ago (to 33¢).
Show all 12 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:00 · +3.3pp → 18¢
- 13:00 · +4.5pp → 18¢
- 10:00 · +3.8pp → 18¢
- 04:00 · +3.8pp → 18¢
- 02:00 · +4.3pp → 18¢
- 21:00 · -3.0pp → 13¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 18¢
- 1d ago · +6.6pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · -3.1pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · +14.7pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · +3.6pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +18.5pp → 33¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- US governmentOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.