Weird-Freedom
0xeca0c0888e34df59589c67fbe53dc7f298b5e8f8
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
165
Open notional
$85.7K
Total PnL
$12.2K
Realised
$3.3K
Win rate
61%
85 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 165- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
3501 shares @ 81.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.3K
$502.39
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3000 shares @ 71.8¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.7K
$590.00
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
3000 shares @ 65.3¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.4K
$427.19
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
3000 shares @ 57.7¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.4K
$654.89
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
2000 shares @ 87.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$243.00
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3000 shares @ 58.2¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.9K
$159.82
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
2000 shares @ 89.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.9K
$110.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
2000 shares @ 88.7¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.7K
$-45.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
3000 shares @ 53.5¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$89.70
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
2000 shares @ 75.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.7K
$170.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$7.20Jul 28, 20:33 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$36.63Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$53.40Jul 28, 20:19 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$36.63Jul 28, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) AND Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Damm (+1.5)$75.00Jul 28, 19:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in July?$9.11Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$469.76Jul 28, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$460.00Jul 28, 18:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$475.32Jul 28, 18:53 UTC
- REDEEMIran full airspace closure by July 27?$1.0KJul 28, 18:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$20.16Jul 28, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$70.00Jul 28, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by September 30?$310.81Jul 28, 18:02 UTC
- MERGEIran full airspace closure by September 30?$500.00Jul 28, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by September 30?$186.95Jul 28, 17:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31$52.50Jul 28, 17:42 UTC
- TRADESELLViktor Orbán arrested by December 31?$27.14Jul 28, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Martin Damm vs Ben Shelton AND Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) AND Mubadala Citi DC Open: Arthur Fils vs Rafael Jodar$100.00Jul 28, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by September 30?$620.00Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$373.85Jul 28, 15:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
61% win rate over 85 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
85 closed markets, 61% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $226.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 17:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 85 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.