Growing-Liner
0xf026ddd5b83358195f8438cb35d24b94aba505a5
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$83.56
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-45.15
Win rate
43%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 8.0¢·now 25.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$25.25
$17.25
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 10.4¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$24.70
$3.80
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
20 shares @ 98.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.61
$-0.03
- YES
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
20 shares @ 44.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.50
$-2.30
- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
500 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.25
$0.75
- YES
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 3.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.50
$-3.50
- YES
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
53 shares @ 6.7¢·now 1.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.75
$-2.85
- NO
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
15000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-63.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 14?
4105 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.35
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
2000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $4.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 08:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.