Uniform-Botany
0xf0ed9e68e6cd3ee712260abeaec32de56a7d47d8
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$52.8K
Total PnL
$25.3K
Realised
$26.2K
Win rate
71%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
13496 shares @ 74.1¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$12.6K
$2.5K
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
8321 shares @ 94.1¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$8.1K
$275.21
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?
7344 shares @ 83.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.9K
$838.27
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
8346 shares @ 45.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$5.8K
$2.0K
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
6585 shares @ 71.4¢·now 70.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.6K
$-92.54
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
3960 shares @ 68.2¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.4K
$684.64
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
4000 shares @ 62.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.3K
$-139.97
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
5016 shares @ 23.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$150.47
- YES
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
7705 shares @ 24.4¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$-800.74
- NO
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?
1317 shares @ 55.2¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$313.49
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$190.20Jul 29, 13:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$112.11Jul 29, 13:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.19Jul 29, 11:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.28Jul 29, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.22Jul 29, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$36.40Jul 29, 10:52 UTC
- TRADESELLLee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?$4.31Jul 29, 09:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$265.32Jul 29, 04:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$244.15Jul 29, 04:29 UTC
- REWARD$2.30Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$40.33Jul 28, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$2.50Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$226.10Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$19.57Jul 28, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$1.2KJul 28, 17:09 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$7.03Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$5.89Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$44.44Jul 27, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$530.03Jul 27, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$125.47Jul 27, 19:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $188.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.